Winter Finch Forecast Update
By Tyler Hoar and Matt Young:
Well, as we head in the Christmas Bird Count season we figured we’d give an update on the Winter Finch Forecast. Tyler had mentioned the holes in the boreal forest food crop back when the forecast was released on September 29th. He has referred to this as the year with the Swiss Cheese food crop, which makes the business of predicting finch irruptions a bit more difficult than usual. Despite this, the forecast has been mostly spot-on so far for Pine Grosbeak, Pine Siskin, Purple Finch, Red Crossbill, Redpoll and the three non-finch irruption species we cover in the forecast. Two things that have been outliers so far are 1) a widespread movement of White-winged Crossbill movement from Nov 10-20th and 2) The Evening Grosbeak irruption has been more on the order of small than the predicted moderate flight. With White-winged Crossbills they’re known to do pendulum flights back and forth across the boreal, but this flight was a bit unusual. There are apparently also big numbers of them still in the western Great Lakes, especially around Sax Zim Bog.
Anyway, it will be fun to see where we’re at with Evening Grosbeaks and the rest of the finches after the Christmas count season is in the books.
PINE GROSBEAK
Prediction From Forecast: Most Pine Grosbeaks should remain in the boreal forest with some flight into their traditional wintering areas in western and southeastern Canada and northern New England states as wild food sources to the north are consumed. Areas around Lake Superior and particularly northern Minnesota, may see a larger movement as the weaker crop in northwestern Ontario is consumed. Roaming Pine Grosbeaks will search for fruiting ornamental trees and well-stocked feeders with black oil sunflower seeds.
Where We’re At: As predicted the vast majority of Pine Grosbeaks have so far stayed to the north in the boreal with a few here and there leaking into the New England States and northern part of the western Great Lakes. The incredible mountain ash crop is keeping them in place. The widespread bumper mountain ash crop along the lower St. Lawrence river in Quebec should hold large numbers of Pine Grosbeaks throughout the winter.
PURPLE FINCH
Prediction From Forecast: This year, the majority should leave Canada with a likely moderate flight to the Great Plains and southern United States. Still, we anticipate small numbers will remain in southern Ontario eastward to the Maritime provinces.
At feeders, they prefer black oil sunflower seeds.
Where We’re At: The movement was a bit slow to build, especially in the east, but the movement was shaping up nicely across the western Great Lakes States early on back in September. Dwayne Martin in North Carolina “reported to Matt on Oct 29 no Purple Finches and not many reported in the state…..in the irruption years we typically have big numbers by the end of October.” Dwayne reported his first ones on Nov 3rd……by Dec 9th he “reported 50-60 Purples, the most he had seen in several years.” The map shows birds to the Gulf Coast states and good numbers in many areas of the Plains and Southern states (see dark purples). Zach Hutchinson at Flocking Around even reports an “eastern Purple hanging with his many Cassin’s Finches in Wyoming.” Birds can be found in moderate widespread numbers across good portions of the east deep into the south.
REDPOLL
Prediction From Forecast: The boreal forest appears to have a widespread average birch crop this winter. Some areas not affected by tent caterpillars in northeastern Ontario and Quebec have heavy birch crops. Areas south of the boreal forest from Lake Huron eastward into New England appear to have scattered areas of good White and Yellow Birch crops surrounded by no seed. The alder crop across the boreal appears to be above average. Redpolls enjoy foraging in weedy fields, and if the snow does not cover these fields, this widespread food source, in addition to the tree seed crops, should hold most Redpolls north. Areas in the upper midwestern states and the Maritime provinces may see more Redpoll movement as southbound birds transit the holes in the boreal cone crop.
Watch for Redpolls on birches, in weedy fields, and at bird feeders that offer Nyjer® and black oil sunflower seeds.
Where We’re At: Ah, back to that Swiss cheese food crop in the boreal again….. apparently there was a big birch food crop hole in middle Canada and several 1000s of Redpolls have irrupted into the western upper Great Lakes areas as predicted. This redpoll flight south past Hawk Ridge also coincided with a winter storm warning of high winds and a lot of heavy wet snow in NW Ontario. This flight started just a few days after this storm — we’re thinking that storm covered a lot of fields full of weed seeds that redpolls love to feed on.
In a conversation with Sparky Stensaas a few days ago, he mentioned that “maybe they could break the Sax Zim Christmas bird count record.” In the Northeast they continue to leak through into the New England states in ones and twos and very small flocks of less than 5 or so.
See the link below for photos and identification marks of the Redpoll subspecies. They are still unique taxon and we continue to encourage everyone to keep looking at those redpolls! Also see links below for more about them being lumped.
PINE SISKIN
Prediction From Forecast: Many Pine Siskins will remain in the boreal and western mountains this winter. Areas from Manitoba eastward affected by Spruce Budworm infestations have a poor cone crop. Siskins that bred in these areas will be on the move. While band recoveries show siskins will move straight across North America from coast to coast, there should be some small movement south in the eastern half of the United States this fall in search of food.
At feeders, they prefer Nyjer® seeds and black oil sunflower in silo feeders.
Where We’re At: Pine Siskins have pretty much done as predicted or maybe a slight touch better. Small numbers (i.e. light purples on map) have moved deep into the south and Plains States mostly in ones and twos and small flock under 15.
RED CROSSBILL
Prediction From Forecast: Most of last year’s invasion of western-type Red Crossbills (Type 2 and 4) appear to have returned west over the summer. Red Crossbills, primarily the Northeastern Type 12, are common in the Adirondacks and eastward into Nova Scotia, feeding on the Red Spruce crop. There are more modest numbers from Algonquin Provincial Park over to the upper Great Lakes states. Leftover Type 2 and 4 will likely be scattered in very small numbers across the area, with a few usual Type 1s around in small numbers as well.
The Red Crossbill types are usually impossible to identify without recordings of their flight calls. Recordings can be made with a smartphone and identified to type. Types can be identified by emailing Matt Young (info@finchnetwork.org) or uploading recordings to an eBird checklist. Recordings uploaded to eBird checklists are deposited in the Macaulay Library.
Where We’re At: Small widespread numbers of Red Crossbills remain in many areas across the Northeast, upper Midwest, and down the spine of the Appalachians. In the Northeastern states it’s been mostly the “Northeastern” Type 12 with a few Type 2 and 4 remaining from last year’s epic flight. Type 1 can be found in small numbers down the Appalachains from western Mass, Eastern Ohio, and southern NY to Georgia. A flock of type 1 wandering outside the mountains a little more than usual was reported from more central NC a few days ago: https://ebird.org/atlasnc/checklist/S205174314
In the Great Lake states its been more of a mix of type 2,4, 12 and even a few Type 10. A few type 10 were also reported at Tadoussac in Quebec.
WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL
Prediction From Forecast: With a good White Spruce crop across most of the boreal forest and good multi-species cone crops in the western mountains, most White-winged Crossbills should stay in the boreal. Some birds will drift out of this crop throughout the winter. In areas of poor cone crops, ornamental spruces in urban areas laden with cones will be used by crossbills.
Significant winter storms and freezing rain events can cause flocks of crossbills to move out quickly in search of accessible food. Watch for crossbills and other finches in neighbouring areas, primarily to the south, after these weather events.
Where We’re At: During the period of Nov 10-20 there was a widespread movement of White-winged Crossbills through Southern Quebec and Southern Ontario west to the western Great Lakes states with some birds leaking to coastal areas of New England to Virginia and even Bermuda!! Yes, Bermuda for the first time since one bird was reported in 2011. This time as many as 17 were reported on Nov 18th. Kansas City, Kansas also had a lone bird on Nov 10th. So far in December the largest numbers of observations and larger flock sizes south of the boreal forest have been in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Lake Huron eastward the observations in December have been much sparser and consisting of solitary birds and smaller flocks under 40.
EVENING GROSBEAK
Prediction From Forecast: There was a widespread and diverse berry crop across the eastern boreal forest in 2024. The berries provided the families of fledging Evening Grosbeaks with an ample food source to replace the Spruce Budworm caterpillars as they spun their cocoons and pupated into adults. By the end of August, many areas with ample berries were barren, having been consumed by the grosbeaks and other fruit-loving vertebrates.
Areas containing viable ash and maple seeds may also hold some flocks in the southern boreal and adjacent forests to the south into the early winter.
With a visible movement at Tadoussac in early August, there should be a moderate flight of Evening Grosbeaks southward this fall. Evening Grosbeaks should visit areas from the Maritime provinces south towards Pennsylvania. Areas even further south to the mid-Atlantic states may see grosbeaks this winter. With Spruce Budworm outbreaks becoming more widespread and scattered around Lake Superior, western Great Lake states may see even more movement this winter.
Evening Grosbeaks in northwestern Ontario westward should move out of the boreal forest, looking for feeders in towns or suitable food sources further south.
At platform feeders, Evening Grosbeaks prefer black oil sunflower seeds. Evening Grosbeaks will look away from feeders for maple and ash trees still holding seeds.
Where We’re At: The Evening Grosbeak irruption has been slow to build so far. Birds continue to leak southward into the Northeast and Great Lake States, but the movement, while predicted to be moderate, has been more on the smaller side so far. Again, that Swiss cheese food crop is likely playing a role, but we believe the enormous Mt Ash crop in Ontario and Quebec that has held up Pine Grosbeaks is also holding up good numbers of Evening Grosbeaks. Perhaps like with the Purple Finch it’ll just be a slow to build irruption where we eventually get to the predicted moderate flight. Again, birds continue to leak southward with numbers slowly building in Maine, Vermont, NH, NY, Michigan, and Minnesota. In the Sax Zim area of Minnesota numbers seen are in the small to average range so far — flocks between 20-40 have been noted. Near Marquette, Michigan there was a report this last week of 40 birds…..In parts of the Northeast flocks of 10-25 are now being seen as well……and one bird has turned up in the Deep South in Tennessee in recent days too.
THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES
Movements of these three passerines are often linked to food crops and the boreal finches.
BLUE JAY
Prediction From Forecast: In eastern North America westward to Manitoba the deciduous tree crop (they love acorns on oaks) appears below average with scattered areas of average crops, so expect a moderate to strong flight this fall.
Where We’re At: Fairly big numbers of Blue Jays moved southward as predicted in the forecast.
RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH
Prediction From Forecast: The Balsam Fir crop is widespread in some areas with a great crop, and is completely absent in other areas across the boreal forest. As a result, we can expect a moderate flight of Red-breasted Nuthatch, with a few birds already being noted near the Gulf Coast.
Where We’re At: As predicted there are widespread numbers of Red-breasted numbers all the way down to the Gulf coast States. The numbers aren’t as big as some flights, but they are widespread across the eastern half of the continent.
BOHEMIAN WAXWING
Prediction From Forecast: Most Bohemian Waxwings will likely stay in the north because native Mountain Ash berry crops and other berries are good across much of the boreal forest.
With the poorer crops in northwestern Ontario, northern midwestern states may see more widespread movements of Bohemian Waxwings.
Small numbers will probably arrive mid to late winter in traditional areas from central Ontario eastward into the Maritime Provinces, New England, and northern New York as winter progresses and food resources dwindle. If some move south, this species will forage on Buckthorn and planted European Mountain Ash berries and ornamental crab apples.
Where We’re At: Same as with Pine Grosbeak and Evening Grosbeak, the Mountain Ash crop is holding many of the frugivores in place in Ontario and Quebec. It likely is holding some Purple Finches up too and was a likely a cause for their late developing eastern flight.
From all of us here at the Finch Research Network, Have a great Christmas Count season, and Happy Holidays to everyone!
Photo Credits Aaron Hywarren
The Finch Research Network (FiRN) is a nonprofit, and was granted 501c3 status in 2020. We are a co-lead on the International Evening Grosbeak Road to Recovery Project, and have funded almost $13,000 to go towards research, conservation and education for finch projects in the last couple years. FiRN is committed to researching and protecting these birds like the Evening Grosbeak, Purple Finch, Crossbills, Rosy-finches, and Hawaii’s finches the honeycreepers.
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Book Link
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Shirt Link
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Please think about joining Finch Research Network iNaturalist Projects:
Winter Finch Food Assessment Project/Become a Finch Forecaster: https://finchnetwork.org/the-finch-food-assessment-become-a-finch-forecaster
Red Crossbill North American Foraging Project: https://finchnetwork.org/crossbill-foraging-project
Evening Grosbeak North American Foraging Project: https://finchnetwork.org/evening-grosbeak-foraging-project
Redpoll subspecies article:
Subspecies of Common and Hoary Redpolls – ID Tips and Photos.http://www.jeaniron.ca/2015/redpollsRP.htm